淺談凈現(xiàn)值法的現(xiàn)狀及對策

論文編號:GS816  論文字數(shù):6533,頁數(shù):08

[摘 要]
 本文從投資決策的分析方法出發(fā)，以常用的投資決策的凈現(xiàn)值法為基礎(chǔ)。凈現(xiàn)值法作為現(xiàn)代企業(yè)投資決策中最基本、也是最常用的一種方法， 更符合企業(yè)財富最大化的假設(shè)及長期發(fā)展目標。但在學習和實際應用中, 凈現(xiàn)值有時會使公司的投資決策預期與實際結(jié)果產(chǎn)生很大的偏差。凈現(xiàn)值法忽略了投資決策受不可逆性、不確定性和靈活性三種因素的影響，忽略了企業(yè)管理者可以通過靈活把握各種投資機會給企業(yè)帶來增值，因此常常低估項目價值等出現(xiàn)一系列的缺陷。為解決這一問題，因而， 一種全新的投資決策分析工具———實物期權(quán)方法應運而生， 在面對較大的環(huán)境不確定性情況下， 實物期權(quán)方法則顯得更為有效和科學。從理論上修正傳統(tǒng)凈現(xiàn)值法的缺陷和不足。
 [關(guān)鍵詞]  凈現(xiàn)值法  缺陷  對策  期權(quán)分析法
[Abstract]
 In this paper, the analysis of investment decision-making methods, the commonly used net present value of the investment decision-making based on law. Net Present Value Method as a decision-making in modern enterprises to invest in the most basic and most commonly used in a way, more in line with the maximization of corporate wealth and the assumption that long-term development goals. However, in study and practical application, the net present value will sometimes expected the company's investment decisions and actual results of the deviation. Net Present Value Method investment decision-making by neglecting the irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility of the three factors, ignored by enterprise managers the flexibility to seize the investment opportunities in a variety of value-added businesses, so often and so underestimate the value of a series of defects. To solve this problem, therefore, a new tool for investment decision-making analysis of real options method --- came into being, in the face of greater environmental uncertainty, the real options approach is much more effective and scientific . In theory the traditional net present value method to amend the shortcomings and deficiencies.
  [Key words]  net present value  limitation  countermeasure  material object option

目錄
一、問題的提出 1
二、凈現(xiàn)值法的弊端 1
（一）不能客觀反映成本效益的高低 1
（二）不確定性的因素（沒有考慮通貨膨脹的因素） 2
（三）沒有考慮固定資產(chǎn)升值及磨損 2
（四）折現(xiàn)率的確定較為困難 3
（五）忽視投資項目中的靈活及經(jīng)營柔性 3
三、對策 4
（一）實物期權(quán)方法提高了決策和科學性 5
（二）期權(quán)分析法分段投資彌補了凈現(xiàn)值法一次完成投資的缺陷  5
（三）投資項目的規(guī)模決策上期權(quán)分析法具有可靈活性及經(jīng)營柔性 6
（四）凈現(xiàn)值法是如何確定風險調(diào)整后的折現(xiàn)率 7
（五）投資決策的期權(quán)特性是一種選擇權(quán) 7
四、總結(jié) 8
參考文獻 10
致謝 11