中美紡織品貿易差額與人民幣匯率的相關關系研究

國際貿易論文編號:GM102     論文字數:6598,頁數:12

目   錄

1 導言 ....................................................2
1.2 文獻回顧 ..............................................2
1.2 本文的研究背景、意義及創新 ............................2
2 模型構建................................................ 3
3 數據說明 ................................................4
3.1 變量選擇 ..............................................4
3.2 數據來源 ..............................................5
3.3 人民幣匯率變動態勢描述 ................................6
3.4 數據的描述統計 ........................................6
4 估計結果 ................................................6
5 結論及政策建議 ..........................................7
5.1 結論及原因分析 ........................................7
5.2 政策建議 ..............................................8
參考文獻 ..................................................10
致謝 ......................................................12

摘    要

      長期以來，人民幣匯率對中美貿易差額的影響程度有多大？至今沒有一致的意見，而美國方面卻認為人民幣匯率低估導致了中美貿易的巨大差額。企圖利用迫使人民幣匯率升值來改善兩國貿易收支。本文就人民幣匯率對中美紡織品貿易差額的長期影響程度進行研究。通過對人民幣匯率的估值水平及變動態勢，政策因素對中美貿易收支影響程度，中美紡織品貿易與人民幣匯率的相關分析等方面的論證，發現：①總體而言，人民幣匯率存在低估，也即人民幣實際匯率貶值；②政策因素對中美貿易收支的作用不顯著；③中美紡織品貿易差額與人民幣匯率負相關，但相關程度較小，因而人民幣實際匯率貶值并不是導致中美紡織品貿易順差的主要原因，從而人民幣匯率升值并不能從根本上改善中美紡織品貿易差額。

【關鍵詞】 人民幣實際匯率 紡織品貿易差額 偏最小二乘法 總指數 廣義指數

Abstract

For a long time, how many extents do the long-term fluctuations of RMB exchange rate affect the Sino--US textiles’ trade balance? Nowadays there is still no accordant answer, and at the same time America strongly holds that it should attribute to the underestimate of RMB which results in the large trade balance between the two parts. Under the great pressure, Bush government takes all kinds of measures to force the reva luation of the RMB exchange rate in order to get some changes in the two countries’ trade income and expenses. In this article, the author will make some research on the long-term extents which the exchange rate impacts on the two parts’ textiles’ trade. Based on the estimated level of the RMB exchange rate and the trend of the changes, adding the political factor which influences the China and US trade income and expenses and some relevant analysis about the two parts’ textile trade and RMB exchange rate, the author find that ①In general, the RMB exchange rate has been underestimated, that means that the RMB real exchange rate is depreciated. ②It is not very obvious that the political factor affects the two parts’ trade income and expenses. ③The relation between the two countries’ textiles’ trade balance and RMB exchange rate is negative correlation. But their degree of association is so small that the depreciation of the RMB real exchange rate is not the main reason which leads to the Sino-US textiles’ trade surplus. So the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate couldn’t make some improvements on the China and US textiles’ trade balance originally.

【key words】RMB Real Exchange Rate；Trade Balance of Textile；General index number；Generalized index number；Partial Least Squares method