人民幣匯率變化對石油進出口的影響

國際貿易論文編號:GM103   論文字數:9166,頁數:16

目   錄

1 導論 ....................................................................2
1.1研究背景 ...............................................................2
1.2 研究意義 ..............................................................2
1.3 國內外相關文獻回顧 ....................................................3
1.4 本文研究思路 ..........................................................3
2 匯率對進出口影響的一般分析 ..............................................4
2.1 彈性論................................................................ 4
2.2 貨幣分析法 ............................................................5
2.3 吸收分析法 ............................................................5
3 回顧人民幣匯率變化的過程 ................................................6
3.2 匯率基本穩定時期...................................................... 6
3.3 匯率穩中有升時期 ......................................................6
4 我國石油進出口概論 ......................................................7
4.1 世界石油概況 ..........................................................7
4.2 我國石油進出口概況 ....................................................8
5 人民幣匯率變化方向對石油進出口的影響 ....................................9
5.1 數據來源及基本理論 ....................................................9
5.2 一元回歸分析 ..........................................................9
5.3 結果分析 ..............................................................11
6 結論及改進建議.......................................................... 12
6.1 增加匯率彈性實行更加靈活的匯率制度來協調石油價格調整 ..................13
6.2. 建立以市場供求為基礎的石油價格機制配合匯率改革 .......................13
6.3 通過拉動內需協調匯率改革與石油價格調整 ................................13
參考文獻 ..................................................................15
致   謝 ...................................................................16

摘     要

       石油是重要的稀缺性資源，也是重要的工業原料和戰略物資。它們的國際價格對國民經濟各行各業具有明顯的波及效應。隨著我國經濟高速增長，資源產品需求量迅速增大。深入研究人民幣匯率變化方向對石油進出口的影響，提出合理的對策方案，對于保證我國國民經濟穩定、快速、持續增長以及保護我國石油的數量，具有重要的理論和現實意義。
本文主要依據彈性論對人民幣匯率展開研究，首先介紹論文研究背景、相關文獻綜述、研究思路與方法；其次運用回歸分析，分析了人民幣匯率變動對石油進出口的影響，得出匯率小幅適度調整，一方面有利于進口國內緊缺的石油，另一方面使進口石油的價格降低，有利于我國通過進口石油，緩解越來越嚴重的資源瓶頸對經濟發展的制約。最終根據結論提出了合理應對風險的對策。

〔關鍵詞〕  人民幣匯率 回歸分析 彈性論

Abstract

Petroleum is known as the big raw materials of industry. It is scarce resource, a security strategic resource of state economy, so it influences national economy deeply. With economy development of our country, the demand for petroleum increases rapidly, while the production of domestic cannot meet the demand. So the author makes a thorough research on petroleum international price mechanism, put off the countermeasures on petroleum international price risk, will have a practical significance on guaranteeing the fast and stable development of national economy.
This paper mainly based on theory of elasticity to study mineral and Renminbi. The introduction mainly introduced the background of research, literature review, methodology, innovation and weakness. Second part depends on regression analysis, has analyzed the effect that exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies changes as well as to resource product import and export theoretically, knowing the regulation of exchange rate in a narrow rang will bring some benefit, on the one hand, it will be of advantage to import the petroleum badly need in our country, on the other hand, it will spur the imported petroleum to reduce the prices so that our country will alleviate the restrict of economic development caused by resource bottleneck by means of importing petroleum. The third has put forward the countermeasure answering risk rationally.

〔Keywords〕Rates for the Renminbi   Regression analysis 
 Theory of elasticity