對我國外貿(mào)依存度快速上升現(xiàn)象的思考

國際貿(mào)易論文編號:GM012    論文字數(shù):11940,頁數(shù):20

目   錄 

1 外貿(mào)依存度概述 ......................................2
2 我國外貿(mào)依存度的發(fā)展狀況 ............................3
2.1 我國外貿(mào)依存度的縱向發(fā)展趨勢 ......................3
2.2 從國際橫向比較看我國外貿(mào)依存度的高低 ..............5
3 現(xiàn)行我國外貿(mào)依存度快速上升的原因分析 ................8
3.1 外貿(mào)政策直接影響外貿(mào)依存度........................ 8
3.2 國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構以制造業(yè)為主，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重較低 ........8
3.3 一些因素高估了外貿(mào)依存度.......................... 9
3.4 匯率的變動直接影響外貿(mào)依存度的水平 ................10
4 對現(xiàn)行外貿(mào)依存度快速上升現(xiàn)象的思考 ..................11
4.1 外貿(mào)依存度與外貿(mào)貢獻率的非一致性 ..................11
4.2 對外開放度和外貿(mào)依存度的區(qū)別 ......................12
4.3 高依存并不意味著高風險 ............................12
5 構建適度的外貿(mào)依存度 ................................14
5.1 完善國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟核算制度 ..............................14
5.2 擴大內(nèi)需 ..........................................15
5.3 貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略的調整 ....................................15
5.4 完善人民幣匯率形成機制............................ 17
參考文獻 ..............................................19
致  謝 ................................................20

摘     要

       自從2001年中國加入世界貿(mào)易組織，我國外貿(mào)依存度便節(jié)節(jié)攀升，呈現(xiàn)出高位運行和快速上升的態(tài)勢。曾有統(tǒng)計結果表明:截至2005年10月份，我國的外貿(mào)依存度已經(jīng)提升到80%。中國成為世界上外貿(mào)依存度最高的國家。外貿(mào)依存度快速上升，一方面表明中國參與全球一體化的進程加速；另一方面，外貿(mào)依存度快速發(fā)展也反映隨著我國貿(mào)易的迅猛發(fā)展，我國經(jīng)濟受世界經(jīng)濟沖擊的風險在加大。對此，國內(nèi)外存在不同的見解。有些專家擔心現(xiàn)行我國外貿(mào)依存度過高，會影響我國的經(jīng)濟安全，應控制我國貿(mào)易的發(fā)展速度以規(guī)避風險；而有些專家認為我國外貿(mào)依存度并沒有過高，而是由于一些因素的影響而被高估了。對于我國外貿(mào)依存度快速上升發(fā)展趨勢不必過分擔心，它是世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的大趨勢，是必然的。
為了研究我國外貿(mào)依存度的發(fā)展現(xiàn)況及其趨勢，本文以中國外貿(mào)依存度為對象，在簡單介紹了外貿(mào)依存度相關概念的基礎上，從橫向和縱向兩方面分析其發(fā)展態(tài)勢；然后，對其快速攀升發(fā)展態(tài)勢的原因進行分析，探究其真實水平；同時，對人們經(jīng)常混淆的相關概念進行辨析，討論我們該如何正確客觀的看待我國現(xiàn)行外貿(mào)依存度的發(fā)展態(tài)勢。最后，文章對通過分析所暴露的我國貿(mào)易發(fā)展中存在的安全隱患和風險提出應對措施和建議，以規(guī)避外部風險、維護經(jīng)濟安全，促進我國經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)增長和貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略的調整。

【關鍵字】外貿(mào)依存度 國際比較 對外開放度 經(jīng)濟安全 貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略調整

Abstract

The Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade of China has been upgrading continually since China accessed to WTO. It is high up in the air and presents a picture of high-speed. According to government statistics, the Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade of China had risen to 80% so far to October 2005. China has become the country with the highest Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade. On the one hand, it means that the progress of China taking part in globalization is quickened. On the other hand, it reflects that the impact of world economy on China’ economy is intensified go along with the quick development of China’ trade. Different people have different views about the phenomenon. Some people hold that the RDFT of China is too high and the security of China’ economy will be affected. We should control the development speed of our trade to evade external risks. While others experts think that the RDFT is overestimated by some factors .It is not necessary to worry about it too much. The high-speed of RDFT is the inevitable result of the development of world economy.
To have a clear view of current situation and tendency of RDFT, this thesis chooses RDFT as object. Firstly, this thesis tells us some basic concept about RDFT. On the basis, it analyses the tendency of RDFT from two sides: horizontal and vertical. Then it explains the exact reasons of the quick upward trend and studies the real level of RDFT .At the same time, it discriminates some concepts that people often confuse with RDFT to probe into the question -- how to adopt a correct and objective attitude towards the quick upward trend of RDFT. In the end, this paper gives some corresponding suggestions and measures to evade the hidden risks and troubles in the quick development of China’ trade, safeguard the security of China’ economy, promote the sustainable development and the adjustment of foreign trade strategy.

【Key Words】the Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade ; International Comparison; the Ratio of Openness; Security of Economy; Adjustment of Foreign Trade Strategy