從外匯儲備的視角來看我國流動性過剩問題

國際貿易論文編號：GM292  字數:23353,頁數:37
目  錄
   
摘要 I
Abstract II
1引言 1
 1.1研究背景 1
 1.1.1我國流動性過剩的國際背景 1
 1.1.2我國流動性過剩的國內背景 3
 1.2研究意義 4
2流動性過剩的相關概述 5
 2.1流動性過剩的定義及測量 5
 2.2流動性過剩對國內經濟的影響 7
 2.2.1資產泡沫的形成和擴大 7
 2.2.2通貨膨脹壓力的增大 7
 2.2.3銀行信貸規模的增長失衡 7
 2.2.4貨幣政策的獨立性降低 8
3關于外匯儲備與流動性過剩之間關系的綜合分析 9
 3.1基于貨幣沖銷的相關理論分析 9
 3.2基于中央銀行資產負債表的分析 10
 3.3基于實證數據的定量分析 12
 3.3.1單位根檢驗 14
 3.3.2協整分析 15
 3.3.3格蘭杰因果檢驗 17
 4我國高額外匯儲備的成因分析 19
 4.1我國現行外匯管理體制是高額外匯儲備形成的制度性因素 19
 4.2我國國際收支失衡是外匯儲備持續增長的直接原因 19
 4.2.1持續高額的貿易順差導致經常項目順差的形成 20
 4.2.2境外資金流入的增加導致資本與金融項目順差的形成 21
5解決我國流動性過剩的相關政策調整 23
 5.1調整經濟發展戰略，改革外匯管理制度 23
 5.2降低“雙順差”，實現國際收支的基本平衡 23
 5.2.1調整我國貿易政策，改變長期經常項目順差格局 23
 5.2.2調整我國外資和匯率政策，減少資本與金融項目順差 24
 5.3改革外匯儲備管理體制，優化外匯儲備資產結構和幣種 25
6結論 27
參考文獻 28
附錄 30
謝辭 31

摘  要 
 
 近幾年，隨著我國經濟的快速發展和對外開放程度的不斷加深，高額外匯儲備與流動性過剩已成為我國經濟發展過程中的兩個突出問題。本文認為，過快的外匯儲備增長必然會給我國的宏觀經濟調控帶來一系列的問題，其中最突出的就是流動性過剩的失控問題。因此，在解決我國流動性過剩的問題中，如果我們只靠著一般的貨幣政策工具來進行調控，則存在較大的局限性。為了可以更好地進行調控并且使這些貨幣政策工具得到更有效的發揮，我們應該從外匯儲備的視角出發來著手分析我國流動性過剩的問題。本文擬就外匯儲備與貨幣供應量之間的關系，以及外匯儲備增加對流動性過剩的影響程度等問題運用多種論證方法進行探討，并通過原因導向分析，為我國對外貿易政策的調整提供相關的政策依據，從而緩解因外匯儲備激增而導致的我國流動性過剩問題。 
關鍵詞：外匯儲備  流動性過剩  貨幣供應量  對外貿易政策
 
 

 Analyzing the problem about Chinese Excess Liquidity from the aspect of foreign exchange reserves
 
 Abstract
 
 In recent years, with the rapid development of our country’s economy and opening up to the world, the problem of huge foreign exchange reserves and excess liquidity has emerged as a major issue in the progressing course of economy. The thesis maintains that the foreign exchange reserves overgrowth will bring about a series of problems to our country’s macroeconomic coordination, and the biggest worry of them is the excess liquidity is out of control. So if we only choose the common monetary policy instrument to control the excess liquidity, it will have considerably limitations. In order to making the common monetary policy instrument more effective, we shall undertake to analyze the problem of our country’s excess liquidity from the aspect of foreign exchange reserves. The thesis goes into the subject on what connection between the foreign exchange reserves and the money supply is, what the degree of influences of increasing foreign exchange reserves and excess liquidity, etc, by a few kinds of methods. And bases on the reason as a guide to provide related evidence for our country’s foreign trade policy. In this way, the problem of excess liquidity can be resolved.
 Key words: Foreign exchange reserves  Excess liquidity   Money supply    
 Foreign trade policy