國(guó)際金價(jià)的影響因素分析

論文編號(hào):GM819  論文字?jǐn)?shù):18067.頁(yè)數(shù):39

國(guó)際金價(jià)的影響因素分析
摘  要

黃金作為一種特殊的貴金屬，具有貨幣和商品的雙重性質(zhì)。近幾年來，國(guó)內(nèi)外軒起了黃金投資的熱潮，也使黃金價(jià)格經(jīng)歷了大幅的波動(dòng)，黃金的稀缺性使其保值增值的功能再次得到體現(xiàn)。因此研究黃金市場(chǎng)中黃金投資和黃金價(jià)格變化的影響因素顯得非常重要，也具有現(xiàn)實(shí)的意義。本文先通過介紹黃金投資現(xiàn)狀，為下文分析黃金價(jià)格影響因素作鋪墊，并詳細(xì)分析了石油價(jià)格、道瓊斯指數(shù)、美元指數(shù)和美國(guó)CPI等因素對(duì)黃金價(jià)格的影響，運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，采用EViews5.0軟件，對(duì)影響黃金價(jià)格的重要因素進(jìn)行分析研究，建立數(shù)量模型進(jìn)行量化分析，從而為研究黃金價(jià)格的變化和黃金投資提供依據(jù)。并針對(duì)黃金投資優(yōu)勢(shì)提出黃金投資策略, 使投資者在實(shí)際黃金市場(chǎng)投資中能依據(jù)當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策、金融市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)找準(zhǔn)買入點(diǎn)和賣出點(diǎn)，規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)獲得利差收入。 
關(guān)鍵詞：黃金投資  金價(jià)  實(shí)證分析  影響因素 

 Analyzing the influential factors of the International
 price of gold
ABSTRACT
 
 As a special kind of precious metals, gold has the two sides on the nature of currencies and commodities. In recent years, domestic and foreign gold investment upsurge, which lead to gold price fluctuated sharply. The scarcity of gold makes its value and function reflected again. So in current gold market, the further study about gold investment as well as factors of influencing gold price to change appears very important, also has realistic significance. This thesis will describe gold investment situation in order to introduce the analysis for the parts, what have impacts on the gold price. And then by making a detailed analysis on the oil prices, the dow Jones index, the dollar index,U.S CPI ect, besides, by the econometrical method and using empirical analysis of EViews5.0 software, the paper will have terrific proof for the change of  gold price and gold investment. Then provides some strategies of gold investment referring to gold investment advantages which make the investors more sensitive to the practical investment in actual gold market by using the current economic investment policy and financial market situation pinpoint and then buy point and sell point to avoid the risk and obtain the interest income.
Key words: Gold investment  Gold price  Empirical analysis  Effect factor
  
 

目  錄

摘  要 I
ABSTRACT II
1引言 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究?jī)?nèi)容 1
1.3研究目的 2
1.4研究方法及研究框架 2
2 黃金投資現(xiàn)狀 4
3 國(guó)際金價(jià)影響因素關(guān)系分析 5
3.1石油價(jià)格 5
3.2美元指數(shù) 6
3.3道瓊斯指數(shù) 6
3.4美國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù) 7
3.5國(guó)際政治局勢(shì) 7
4 黃金價(jià)格模型的實(shí)證分析 9
4.1建立多元回歸模型 9
4.2統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn) 10
4.21擬合優(yōu)度檢驗(yàn) 10
4.22 F檢驗(yàn) 10
4.23 T檢驗(yàn) 10
4.3 單位根檢驗(yàn) 11
4.4 協(xié)整檢驗(yàn) 14
4.5 格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn) 16
4.6 各因素對(duì)黃金價(jià)格影響的分析 17
5 黃金投資的優(yōu)勢(shì)及投資策略 18
5.1黃金投資優(yōu)勢(shì) 18
5.2黃金投資策略 19
5.21儲(chǔ)備黃金投資相關(guān)知識(shí)，合理評(píng)估個(gè)人投資偏好 19
5.22理性選擇黃金投資品種 20
5.23利用閑置資金進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)期投資 20
5.24合理控制黃金投資比例 20
6 小結(jié) 21
參考文獻(xiàn) 22
附  錄 23
謝  辭 35