中國通貨膨脹的貨幣性分析

金融論文編號:JR047  字數:15189,頁數:29

目    錄

1.導論································· 1

1.1研究的背景·····························  1

1.2 通貨膨脹的研究方法概述·······················  1

1.3 本文研究的創新···························  1

2.通貨膨脹現象文獻綜述及理論基礎····················  2

2.1通貨膨脹的定義···························· 2

2.1.1國外關于通貨膨脹的著名定義····················· 2

2.1.2國內關于通貨膨脹的著名定義····················· 3

2.2通貨膨脹的分類···························· 4

2.2.1公開的和壓抑的通貨膨脹······················· 4

2.2.2爬行的、適度的、奔騰的和惡性的通貨膨脹··············· 4

2.2.3預期的和未預期的通貨膨脹······················ 4

2.2.4成本推動與需求拉動通貨膨脹····················· 5

2.3通貨膨脹的測度···························· 5

2.3.1西方發達國家對通貨膨脹的測度方法·················· 5

2.3.1.1物價指數····························· 5

2.3.1.2理想財富指數（Rational Asset Index）··············· 6

2.3.2我國測度通貨膨脹的方法······················· 7

3.中國通貨膨脹現象回顧與現狀······················· 7

3.1中國通貨膨脹的歷史回顧·························7

3.2 中國現時的通貨膨脹現象························13

4.中國現時通貨膨脹的貨幣性分析······················15

4.1研究思路·······························15

4.1.1數據和計量模型說明·························15

4.2格蘭杰（Granger）因果檢驗分析····················16

4.3結論·································17

5.政策建議································17

致謝···································20

參考文獻·································21

英文摘要·································22

附錄···································23

成績評定表································26

摘    要

通貨膨脹對一個國家經濟增長和人民生活的影響是不言而喻的。隨著近段時間消費者物價指數（CPI）的高企，通貨膨脹已經成為我國經濟學界、政府和人民共同關注的話題。然而，盡管通貨膨脹這一經濟現象為人所熟悉，但是，對于通貨膨脹的本質定義、成因和治理的政策建議卻仍然未能有一個最終的共識。本文先是對國內外經濟學界對通貨膨脹的不同定義、分類和度量方法進行概括性的回顧，以得出對通貨膨脹的準確認識。同時，總結我國改革開放以來歷次通貨膨脹，并與現階段我國的通貨膨脹進行對比。最后，對過往通貨膨脹計量分析方法中的一些貨幣指標選取做出修改，利用格蘭杰（Granger）因果檢驗，得出現階段我國特定情形下的通貨膨脹的主要成因是消費者的可支配收入增加和國家貨幣發行速度過快，并提出政策建議。

關鍵詞：通貨膨脹  貨幣性  格蘭杰（Granger）因果檢驗