幣種結構調整是一件很困難的事情，一是幣種結構調整本身的成本，一種貨幣換成另一種貨幣肯定是有成本的；二是我們做出調整之后，國際市場會有相應的調整，這個過程注定是一個緩慢的過程。這也正是本文的研究意義之所在，通過本文的分析研究，可以為這種調整過程提供一個明確的方向，從而降低調整成本，加快調整的速度和效率。
本文基于H. M. Markowitz的資產組合模型，通過對主要儲備幣種的風險與收益分析，獲得了一組優化的幣種結構（一系列收益率一定情況下的風險最小點），并對得到的結論進行檢驗和分析，最終得出我國外匯儲備幣種結構的調整方向。不僅如此，本文還根據預測期限將模型分為短期模型（一年以內）和中期模型（一年以上）分別進行研究以使其更切合實際。
本文得出的結論為：現階段中國合理的外匯儲備貨幣結構非最優化，并且提出了幣種結構的調整方向——中長期內，我國應盡量增加歐元在儲備資產中的比例，減少美元資產在儲備中所占的比例；近期，可適當增加日元儲備。
關鍵詞：外匯儲備 ；幣種結構 ；資產組合模型 ；優化
Abstract
The adjustment of currencies structure is a task so difficult, firstly, it’s about the cost of currencies restructuring itself, no doubt there is a cost in shifting form one currency to another; secondly, once we make adjustment, the international market will respond to it and make adjustment too, that’s must be a process which takes a long term. That’s why this paper makes sense, according to the analysis of this paper, the direction of currencies restructuring is decided, thus, the cost of the adjustment can be reduced, and the whole process will speed up and can be more effective.
This paper is based on the portfolio model proposed by H. M. Markowitz , which is mean to find out a series of points which have the minimize risk under certain benefits by analyzing the risks and benefits of the reserve currencies. Then, these results are tested and analyzed for their correctness, and, finally, advices on the direction of adjustment of currencies are made out. What’s more, in order to make the paper more practical, the model is divided into short-time model (less than one year) and middle-time model (more than one year) by the forecast period.
This paper comes to the conclusion as follow: the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves China adopted now is non-optimal, and, what’s more, the direction of currencies restructuring is proposed, that is, on the middle and long run, increasing the proportion of Euro in reserve assets and meanwhile reducing the proportion of US dollar; while, currently, it’s better to increase the proportion of Japanese Yen appropriately.
