期貨市場在有色金屬貿易中的應用

國際貿易論文編號:GM430  論文字數:16316.頁數:27

  
 正文目錄
 
 
第一章  引言 ……………………………………………………………1
 第一節 研究背景………………………………………………………1
 第二節 研究目的………………………………………………………2
第二章 期貨交易對有色金屬貿易的必要性……………………………3
第一節 有色金屬貿易現狀………………………………………………3
第二節 有色金屬進出口貿易中存在的問題………………………………4
第三節 有色金屬貿易與期貨貿易的相關性………………………………5
第三章 有色金屬進出口企業利用期貨市場的策略 …………………6
 第一節 回避風險的主要方式——套期保值………………………………7
 第二節 期貨市場的投機方式——有色金屬套利…………………………10
第四章 期貨市場風險防范與控制……………………………………15
 第一節 期貨市場風險的成因……………………………………………15
 第二節 期貨市場風險變化的分析和預測 ………………………………16
 第三節 期貨市場風險的監控與防范……………………………………18
第五章 研究結論………………………………………………………19
參考文獻…………………………………………………………………20
致    謝…………………………………………………………………22

 摘  要
 
 有色金屬進出口貿易屬于大宗商品貿易，進入門檻相對較高，在日常進出口貿易中的一些問題是所有有色金屬進出口商都無法回避的。首先，是價格波動問題。對有色金屬專業進出口商來說價格頻繁波動是最大問題，每一次價格振蕩，無論漲跌，都會給進出口業務帶來相當的沖擊；第二，是資源和國家政策因素影響。第三，是資金問題。有色金屬進出口需要大量資金、銀行授信額度和廣泛多樣的融資渠道來支撐，這些在目前的銀行體系內無法保證。
 有色金屬進出口業務發展到了一定階段，涉足期貨市場是必不可少的一步。有色金屬進出口企業利用期貨市場的方式主要有套期保值和套利，其中套期保值是回避現貨價格波動的主要方式；套利是相對風險較小的投機方式。本文通過套期保值方案的設計和分析來明確，如何結合現貨進出口實施套期保值，套期保值中的風險及控制，套期保值操作中的注意事項等等；通過跨市套利方案的設計明確跨市套利的原理及如何操作，如何分析兩個市場的比價關系，如何回避跨市套利的風險，并且探討了跟跨市套利有關的其他操作方式。
 有色金屬進出口利用期貨交易的可行性得到確認后，文章主要探討期貨市場風險的防范與控制。一般來說，應該將基本分析法和技術分析法結合使用，并在實戰中不斷磨練操作經驗，才能更好把握市場行情的走勢，提高預測的準確率。期貨市場風險的控制主要通過交易所、經紀公司和投資者的共同努力來實現，本文主要從投資者角度探討了控制風險的一些注意點。但是風險控制是與實際操作是分不開的，需要每個進出口企業根據自己的業務情況有針對性制定適合本企業的方案，并在操作中不斷驗證、調整和優化，使得風險的控制措施不成為擺設。
 關鍵詞：有色金屬，期貨市場，套期保值，套利，風險防范和控制
 
 
 ABSTRACT
 
 Import and export trade of non-ferrous metals are large merchandise trade, the relatively high barriers to entry, is the problems that all non-ferrous metal importers and exporters can not be evaded. First of all, is the issue of price volatility. To professional importers and exporters of non- ferrous metals prices is the biggest problem ,it is the frequent fluctuations in every price oscillation, regardless of Change, to import and export business will bring substantial economic impact; Second, the resources and influence national policy. Third, is the financing. Non -Ferrous Metals Import and Export needs a lot of money, bank credit lines and a wide variety of financing channels to support, which in the current banking system can not be assured.
 It can be said that the import and export of non-ferrous metals business to a certain stage, into the futures market is an essential step. Import and export enterprises to take advantage of non- ferrous metals futures markets there are hedging and arbitrage, which hedge the spot price volatility is to avoid the main mode; arbitrage is relatively less risky way of speculation. In this paper hedging program through the design and analysis to clear, how to spot the import and export hedging, hedging and risk control, hedging operations, etc. Note; through cross-market arbitrage program design a clear cross-market arbitrage and how the principles of operation, how to analyze the relationship between the two market prices, how to choose the market opportunity and how to avoid the risk of cross-market arbitrage, and discusses the cross-market arbitrage with other practices.
 Non-Ferrous Metals Import and Export of the feasibility of the use of futures trading after it has been confirmed, the article focused on the futures market to prevent and control risks. Generally speaking, should be the fundamental analysis and technical analysis combined with the use of, and continue to hone their combat experience in order to better grasp the trend of the market, improve forecast accuracy. Futures markets to control risk of the primary exchanges, brokerage firms and investors to work together to achieve, from the investor point of this paper discusses some of the attention of the risk control points. However, risk control is inseparable from the actual operation, the need for each import and export enterprises according to their own business to develop targeted programs for the enterprises, and continue to verify the operation, adjustment and optimization, making the risk control measures do not become a display.
 
 KEYWORDS: Non-ferrous metals, futures markets, hedging, arbitrage, risk prevention and control