Analysis of factors influence energy demand and study for forecast——industry structure, economic growth and demographic structure
ABSTRACT
There is a great gap between energy demand and energy supply, namely demand more than supply. The factors of industry structure、economic growth and demographic structure have been enlarging the energy demand in China. High efficiency and low Consumed Energy Behavior of industry need developed, also technology need improve and innovate; for the long run, economic growth increasingly depend on energy consumption, but low efficiency and high consumed energy behavior of energy development is necessary to economic growth quickly at present. To carry out strategies of sustainable development need set up resources economy type society and energy saving type economy system; energy demand is influenced by the change of demographic structure. The study for Quantitative Analysis of primary demographic structure, including Rate of Natural Increase，Birth Sex Ratio，Rural Urbanization and Population Aging. Simultaneity, by State Transfer Model and BP Model forecast the population scope in China. Using elasticity of energy consumption and Energy Consumption Per Capita forecast the energy demand in China.
KEYWORDS：energy demand and energy consumption，GDP，demographic structure，industry structure
