國際商務談判過程的博弈分析

國際貿易論文編號:GM228     包括:開題報告及任務書,論文字數:10797,頁數:18
目  錄

1   引言 - 2 -
2   國際商務談判博弈的性質 .........................................- 2 -
2.1 國際商務談判是非零和的博弈 .....................................- 3 -
2.2 國際商務談判是動態的博弈....................................... - 3 -
2.3 國際商務談判是不完全但完美信息的博弈 ...........................- 3 -
2.4 國際商務談判是重復的博弈 .......................................- 3 -
3   國際商務談判的博弈過程 .........................................- 3 -
3.1 國際商務談判過程的假設 .........................................- 3 -
3.2 國際商務談判過程的博弈模型..................................... - 4 -
4   國際商務談判過程的博弈解 .......................................- 5 -
4.1 基本模型博弈解 .................................................- 5 -
4.2 一般模型博弈解 .................................................- 6 -
4.3 加入支付條件的談判研究 .........................................- 9 -
5   策略建議與結論 .................................................- 11 -
5.1 準確估計信息因素 ...............................................- 11 -
5.2 合理把握談判的優勢勢力 .........................................- 12 -
5.3 選擇好后備籌碼 .................................................- 13 -
5.4 死守最后期限 ...................................................- 14 -
5.5 重視延誤的成本 .................................................- 15 -
5.6 合理利用其他條款把“蛋糕”做大 .................................- 15 -
參考文獻 ...........................................................- 17 -
致謝詞 .............................................................- 18 -

摘   要

     在全球化迅猛發展的今天，國際商務交流越來越頻繁。伴隨著國際商務的開展，國際商務談判也已經成為世界經濟活動中的重要組成部分。談判的整個過程是雙方當事人為實現各自的商業目的，使自己利益最大化的過程。在談判中雙方各自獨立決策，但同時不得不考慮到對手的決策，并且要根據對手的決策調整自己的決策，其過程的本質是雙方或多方當事人博弈的過程。
本文從國際商務談判中的價格談判部分入手，利用博弈論知識與方法分析國際商務談判過程。首先分析國際商務談判過程的博弈性質，接著針對國際商務談判過程做出基本的假設并且據此對國際商務談判的過程進行博弈模型化。然后，利用魯賓斯坦恩輪流出價討價還價模型思想分析利益分享為“1”和加入預期價格兩種情況下的博弈解，并用效用理論得到有支付條件下的國際商務價格談判的可能解點。最后，本文通過對國際商務談判博弈解的分析,探討在國際商務談判過程中談判雙方為了爭取更多利益而應該采取的有效策略建議。

【關鍵詞】國際商務談判 談判過程 博弈模型 博弈解

Abstract

With the rapid development of globalization, international business communication becomes more and more frequent events. Thus, the International Business Negotiation has become a very important component in the world transaction. Negotiation is a processing of the parties involved to achieve their own commercial purposes, i.e. to ensure a maximum benefit for theirown. During the negotiation, both sides make decision separately, but they have to consider the strategies may adopt by the opponent so as to adjust their own strategies. The negotiation processing is, in essence, a game of two-parties or multi-parties.
This thesis starts from the price negotiation of international business negotiations by using the thought of Game Theory. Firstly, it analyzes the natures of the international business negotiation. Then it draws out the basic assumptions of a typical international business negotiation and according to that, constructs the Game Model of international business negotiation process. Followed by that, Game solutions are discussed in the case of fixed “1” share and added expected price by using the thought of Rubinstein Alternating Offers Model. In the case of added payment terms, Game solutions are expected by using the efficiency theory. Finally, via the game solutions discussed above, this thesis is going to recommend some strategies for the negotiators to strive for more profits.

【Key Words】International Business Negotiation; Negotiation Processing; Game Model; Game Solution