人民幣升值對我國經濟的利與弊

國際貿易論文編號:GM278  論文字數:16526,頁數:17   

目        錄
摘要 .............................................................................1
Abstract..........................................................................1
1 引言............................................................................2
1.1 研究背景及目的 ...............................................................2
1.2研究綜述 ......................................................................3
1.2.1 國內研究現狀 ...............................................................3
1.2.2 國外研究現狀 ...............................................................3
1.3研究內容及方法 ................................................................3
2 人民幣匯率機制改革 .............................................................4
2.1 匯改前人民幣匯率制度的弊端 ...................................................4
2.1.1 匯率調節機制僵化導致外匯市場不發達 .........................................4
2.1.2 基礎匯率的確定缺乏合理依據 .................................................4
2.1.3 高昂的制度維護成本 .........................................................5
2.1.4 阻礙中國利率市場化的改革進程 ...............................................5
2.2現階段人民幣匯率機制改革 ......................................................5
2.2.1 內容 .......................................................................5
2.2.2 特點及評價 .................................................................6
2.2.3 新匯制下人民幣匯率的表現 ...................................................6
3人民幣升值的影響因素分析 ........................................................7
3.1助長人民幣升值的國際因素 ......................................................7
3.1.1 美國經濟失衡因素............................................................7
3.1.2 國際產業分工因素 ...........................................................8
3.2 引發人民幣升值的國內因素......................................................8
3.2.1 經濟結構因素 ...............................................................9
3.2.2 經濟制度因素 ...............................................................9
3.2.3 宏觀經濟因素 ...............................................................9
3.2.4經濟發展因素 ................................................................9
3.2.5 發展戰略因素 ..............................................................10
3.2.6 市場預期因素 ..............................................................10
4 人民幣升值對我國經濟的影響 ....................................................10
4.1 人民幣升值對我國經濟的有利方面...............................................10
4.1.1本幣升值將增強人民幣的支付能力..............................................10
4.1.2 提高我國貨幣政策的獨立性 ..................................................11
4.1.3 降低我國發生通貨膨脹的可能性并刺激股市 ....................................11
4.1.4 優化我國的產業結構調整.....................................................11
4.1.5 促進我國對外貿易的發展 ....................................................12
4.2 人民幣升值對我國經濟的不利方面 ..............................................13
4.2.1人民幣升值不利于引進外資....................................................13
4.2.2　人民幣升值可能加劇我國的資本外流 .........................................13
4.2.3 人民幣升值可能引起我國巨額外匯儲備縮水 ....................................13
4.2.4 人民幣升值會降低中國企業的利潤，增加就業壓力 ..............................14
5 完善人民幣匯率機制的政策建議...................................................14
6 結束語 ........................................................................15
參考文獻.........................................................................15
致    謝 ........................................................................15

摘要
 本文試圖分析自2005年7月21日中國匯率制度改革以來，人民幣匯率逐步升值，并于2007年進入加速升值期的問題。本文試圖探討促成人民幣升值的國內外因素，剖析人民幣升值以后對國內各產業和地區及對國際社會的影響，闡述2008年人民幣匯率走勢及探討人民幣是否會有繼續升值的可能，評估人民幣升值的利處與弊端,提出一系列應對人民幣升值所帶來影響的策略。本文從宏觀和微觀兩方面以定量和定性的分析方法重點論述了人民幣匯率改革的重要意義，分析了人民幣升值對我國經濟正反兩方面的影響并得出人民幣適時升值對我國經濟發展不可估量的積極意義。

關鍵詞:  人民幣升值；利處；弊端；匯率

Abstract
  This paper attempts to analysis since July 21, 2005 exchange rate system reform in China since the reva luation of the RMB exchange rate gradually, and in 2007 entered the period of accelerated appreciation of the problem. This paper attempts to explore contributed to the appreciation of the RMB at home and abroad, after analyzing the appreciation of the RMB to domestic industries and regions and the international community on the impact of 2008 on the RMB exchange rate movements and to explore whether the RMB appreciation will likely continue to assess the appreciation of the RMB benefits Department and the disadvantages of a series deal with the appreciation of the RMB impact brought about by the strategy. From both the macro and micro to the quantitative and qualitative analysis focuses on the RMB exchange rate reform, the significance of the appreciation of the RMB on China's economy, both positive and negative effects and that timely appreciation of the RMB to China's economic development inestimable positive.

Key Word:  RMB appreciation    advantages    disadvantages    exchange rate