國(guó)有企業(yè)對(duì)全民分紅拉動(dòng)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)的定量分析

論文編號(hào):GM814  論文字?jǐn)?shù):14321.頁(yè)數(shù):27

國(guó)有企業(yè)對(duì)全民分紅拉動(dòng)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)的定量分析
摘  要

 隨著國(guó)務(wù)院2007年《關(guān)于試行國(guó)有資本經(jīng)營(yíng)預(yù)算的意見》的實(shí)施，國(guó)有企業(yè)向國(guó)家上繳利潤(rùn)已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)。但是國(guó)有企業(yè)上繳的利潤(rùn)中，是否應(yīng)該拿出一部分來向全體國(guó)民分紅？以及分紅后會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生多大的拉動(dòng)作用？這兩個(gè)問題目前還處于討論階段。
 本文首先分析、論證了國(guó)有企業(yè)對(duì)全民分紅從理論上是正確的、從實(shí)踐上是可行的，然后進(jìn)入國(guó)有企業(yè)對(duì)全民分紅對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用的定量分析，選擇了凱恩斯的絕對(duì)收入理論和弗里德曼的永久性收入理論作為理論基礎(chǔ)，運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的方法，建立包括消費(fèi)函數(shù)在內(nèi)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)學(xué)模型，并運(yùn)用居民消費(fèi)的歷年數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行定量分析，從增加永久性收入和提高居民收入的邊際消費(fèi)傾向這兩個(gè)方面得出結(jié)論，確認(rèn)國(guó)企向全民分紅對(duì)改善我國(guó)的需求結(jié)構(gòu)、拉動(dòng)GDP增長(zhǎng)所起的重要作用。

關(guān)鍵詞：國(guó)有企業(yè)分紅 公有制產(chǎn)權(quán)理論 消費(fèi)乘數(shù) 永久性收入 邊際消費(fèi)傾向
 

Dividends to the people of state-owned enterprises driven GDP growth of quantitative analysis
ABSTRACT

 With the State Council in 2007 "on the trial of state-owned capital operating budget of the views of" the implementation of state-owned enterprises, the profits turned over to the state has become an indisputable fact. However, the profits of state-owned enterprises in turn, should take part of the dividend to all citizens? And after the dividend the national economy will have a role in how much pull? These two problems is still at the discussion stage.
 In this paper, the analysis demonstrated that the dividends of state-owned enterprises on the popular theory is correct, in practice it is feasible, and then all the people entering the dividends of state-owned enterprises on China's economy boosted by the role of quantitative analysis, selected the Keynesian theory and the absolute income Friedman's permanent income theory as the theoretical basis for the use of econometric methods, including the consumption function, including the establishment of the mathematical model of macroeconomic and consumer use of the quantitative analysis of historical data, from the increase in permanent income and improve the income of marginal propensity to consume these two aspects come to the conclusion, confirmed that state-owned enterprises dividends to the people of our country needs to improve the structure, driving GDP growth in the important role played by.

Key words：Dividends of state-owned enterprises   Public ownership of property rights theory  Consumption multiplier   Permanent income   Marginal propensity to consume
 
 目  錄

摘  要 I
 ABSTRACT II
 目  錄 III
 1  緒  論 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2歷史的進(jìn)程：國(guó)企利潤(rùn)的去向 1
1.3未來的展望：具有雙重社會(huì)意義的國(guó)企對(duì)全民分紅 3
 2  國(guó)企對(duì)全民分紅的理論分析和可行性估計(jì) 4
2.1基于公有制產(chǎn)權(quán)基礎(chǔ)的理論分析 4
2.2國(guó)企對(duì)全民分紅的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的定性分析 5
2.3國(guó)企對(duì)全民分紅的可行性估計(jì) 5
2.3.1阿拉斯加社會(huì)分紅實(shí)踐 5
2.3.2現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)國(guó)企對(duì)全民分紅的可操作性分析 6
 3  基于凱恩斯絕對(duì)收入消費(fèi)理論的定量分析 7
3.1宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型 7
3.2 回歸結(jié)果 8
3.3乘數(shù)效應(yīng)分析 10
4基于弗里德曼永久性收入消費(fèi)理論的定量分析 12
4.1 回歸模型 12
4.2回歸結(jié)果 13
4.3回歸模型檢驗(yàn) 14
4.4邊際消費(fèi)傾向分析 16
 5  國(guó)企對(duì)全民分紅是拉動(dòng)消費(fèi)需求增長(zhǎng)的有效措施 18
5.1 國(guó)企對(duì)全民分紅是增加民眾永久性收入的措施 18
5.2 我國(guó)消費(fèi)者收入心理的定量分析 18
5.3 結(jié)論 19
 6  結(jié)  語(yǔ) 20
 謝  辭 22