企業(yè)財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型研究

財務(wù)管理本篇論文包括:開題報告,中英文摘要,論文,目錄,文獻(xiàn)綜述,大綱 論文編號:CW017   字?jǐn)?shù):10557,頁數(shù):23

目錄
一、導(dǎo)言..............................................................8
（一）、選題的研究背景................................................ 8
（二）、選題的研究意義................................................ 9
        1、理論意義 ...................................................9
        2、實(shí)踐意義 ...................................................9
（三）、選題的研究方法及框架 ..........................................11
二、企業(yè)財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的現(xiàn)狀分析 ....................................11
（一）、財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的定義 ........................................11
（二）、財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的作用 ........................................12
        1、預(yù)知財務(wù)危機(jī)的征兆......................................... 12
        2、預(yù)防財務(wù)危機(jī)發(fā)生或控制其進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大 .........................12
        3、避免類似的財務(wù)危機(jī)再次發(fā)生 .................................12
（三）、企業(yè)財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型存在的問題 ................................12
        1、絕大多數(shù)只運(yùn)用了會計數(shù)據(jù)和財務(wù)比率 .........................12
        2、受到樣本選取范圍和樣本時間區(qū)間的限制....................... 13
        3、財務(wù)指標(biāo)的選取上的差異性 ...................................13
        4、最佳財務(wù)比率與最佳分割點(diǎn)的確定............................. 13
（四）、財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的構(gòu)建........................................ 14
            1、指標(biāo)體系建立的原則 .....................................14
            2、選取指標(biāo)的主要因素 .....................................15
三、具體模型分析——Z計分模型......................................... 15
（一）、Z計分模型的簡介 ...............................................15
        1、Z計分模型簡介 ..............................................15
        2、Z計分模型函數(shù)方程介紹 ......................................16
        3、Z計分模型五項(xiàng)財務(wù)指標(biāo)分析.................................. 16
        4、Z計分模型判斷標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分析 ......................................18
（二）、Z計分模型的缺點(diǎn) ...............................................19
        1、僅考慮2個極端情況（違約與沒有違約） ........................19
        2、權(quán)數(shù)未必一直是固定的，必須經(jīng)常調(diào)整 .........................19
        3、并未考慮景氣循環(huán)效應(yīng)因子的影響 .............................19
        4、公司違約與否與風(fēng)險特性的關(guān)系實(shí)際上可能是非線性的 ...........19
        5、缺乏經(jīng)濟(jì)的理論基礎(chǔ) .........................................19
        6、對市場的變化不夠靈敏（運(yùn)用的會計資料更新太慢） .............19
        7、無法計算投資組合的信用風(fēng)險 .................................19
（三）、Z計分模型的運(yùn)用 ...............................................20
（四）、運(yùn)用Z計分模型的建議 ...........................................24
四、結(jié)論和建議 ........................................................25
附錄 ................................................................27
企業(yè)財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的文獻(xiàn)綜述........................................ 27
參考文獻(xiàn) ............................................................37
致  謝 .............................................................39

摘  要
自我國加入WTO以來，國外跨國企業(yè)資金大量涌入，國內(nèi)企業(yè)面臨許多來自世界各地企業(yè)的競爭和挑戰(zhàn)。國內(nèi)企業(yè)運(yùn)營狀況的好壞與國家的發(fā)展脈搏緊密相連，一旦發(fā)生財務(wù)危機(jī)特別是惡性財務(wù)危機(jī)往往會給投資者、債權(quán)人和企業(yè)，乃至國家造成極為不利的影響。如何盡最大可能地規(guī)避風(fēng)險，減少損失，成為各利害關(guān)系人乃至國家非常關(guān)心的問題，吸引著許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者不懈地探索，尋找更準(zhǔn)確有效的解決方法。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者研究表明，有效的財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警分析，有助于企業(yè)尋找財務(wù)危機(jī)發(fā)生的根源，及時采取對策，防止財務(wù)狀況進(jìn)一步惡化。但是，目前各種財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型，像邏輯回歸和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，仍然存在這樣那樣的缺陷。時代召喚更完善的財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型，來提高預(yù)測財務(wù)危機(jī)的準(zhǔn)確率。而且，現(xiàn)存的財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型仍不十分完善，建立一個完善的財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型，有利于企業(yè)的利害關(guān)系人及時準(zhǔn)確地做出判斷，并且做出正確的決策。因此，本文對企業(yè)財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型進(jìn)行研究、初探。

關(guān)鍵詞：財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型；現(xiàn)狀分析；Z計分模型  

Abstract
With our country joining WTO, the foreign transnational corporations’ funds flow into our country, the local business enterprises face how to hold tight opportunity, and reply to the competitions and challenges. The quality of local business enterprises operating conditions are related to the development of the nation economy. Once the finance crisis especially malignant finance crisis happen，they usually bring the extremely disadvantageous of influence to investors, creditors and business enterprises even to the nation. Each relation person pays attentions to how exert biggest to evade risk probably and reduce loss. Many economic scholars are looking for the accurate and effectively method. The economic scholar studies show that a perfect finance crisis early warning model contribute to a business enterprise to find finance crisis, make a plan in time, prevent from finance crisis. But the current finance crisis early-warning model, such as Logistic model still exist some weakness. The ages invoke a more perfect finance crisis early-warning method to rise estimating the accuracy of the finance crisis. And the existing finance crisis early-warning model is still not perfect. We need to build up a perfect finance crisis early-warning mode for the purpose of the relation person of business enterprises to do the judgment accurately and make the right decision. Therefore, this text carries on a preliminary study to the finance crisis early-warning model of the business enterprise.
Key words:  Finance crisis early-warning model   Z-scores model