財(cái)務(wù)失敗和財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警問題的探討

財(cái)務(wù)管理本篇論文包括:開題報(bào)告,中英文摘要,論文,目錄,文獻(xiàn)綜述,大綱 論文編號(hào):CW019  字?jǐn)?shù):13575,頁(yè)數(shù):28

目  錄

一、引言 ..................................................9
（一）、本論題的研究意義及背景 ............................9
（二）、研究思路和主要內(nèi)容 ................................10
1、研究思路 ...............................................10
2、本文結(jié)構(gòu) ...............................................10
（三）、本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn) ......................................11
二、關(guān)于企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警研究的概述 ............................11
（一）、關(guān)于財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警中的幾個(gè)概念 ..........................11
（二）、財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的一般理論 ................................14
1、明確警義 ...............................................14
2、尋找警源 ...............................................15
3、分析警兆 ...............................................15
4、預(yù)報(bào)警度 ...............................................15
三、國(guó)內(nèi)外財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的理論研究 ..............................16
（一）、國(guó)外財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的理論研究 ............................16
（二）、國(guó)內(nèi)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的理論研究 ............................18
四、Z分?jǐn)?shù)模型在中國(guó)運(yùn)用的得與失 ...........................19
（一）、成功案例：39家ST公司的Z分?jǐn)?shù)模型檢驗(yàn) ...............19
1、研究時(shí)間跨度：2003、2004、2005年........................19
2、樣本選取 ...............................................19
3、指標(biāo)計(jì)算說明 ...........................................20
4、檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果............................................... 21
（二）、失敗案例：企業(yè)銀廣夏Z分?jǐn)?shù)模型檢驗(yàn) .................22
1、銀廣夏案例介紹 .........................................22
2、Z分?jǐn)?shù)模型檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果及原因分析 ............................24
（三）、結(jié)合案例分析財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)在中國(guó)遇到的困境 ..........26
1、財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)的真實(shí)性 .......................................27
2、企業(yè)預(yù)警研究應(yīng)與行業(yè)結(jié)合 ...............................27
五、對(duì)中國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型的建議 ..............................27
（一）、構(gòu)建新的財(cái)務(wù)分析指標(biāo)體系的設(shè)想 ....................27
（二）、考慮行業(yè)區(qū)別的Z模型修正建議 .......................28
1、在模型整體基礎(chǔ)上加上行業(yè)修正值 .........................29
2、針對(duì)每個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)變量設(shè)定一個(gè)行業(yè)修正值 .....................30
3、模型中所選取的財(cái)務(wù)變量呈現(xiàn)行業(yè)性差異 ...................30
六、結(jié)語(yǔ) ..................................................31
財(cái)務(wù)失敗和財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警問題探討的文獻(xiàn)綜述 ......................32
附錄 ......................................................41
參考文獻(xiàn)...................................................42
致謝 ......................................................45

摘   要
     財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警，簡(jiǎn)而言之，就是運(yùn)用財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)預(yù)測(cè)、預(yù)報(bào)企業(yè)的警情。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究一直是企業(yè)界和學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)問題，如何建立有效識(shí)別、評(píng)估、預(yù)警的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警體系始終是國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界探討的問題之一。隨著我國(guó)加入WTO，我國(guó)企業(yè)所面臨的外部競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境越來越激烈，企業(yè)陷入財(cái)務(wù)困境和導(dǎo)致企業(yè)破產(chǎn)的數(shù)量急劇上升，企業(yè)普遍對(duì)抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力較弱。為了能夠增強(qiáng)企業(yè)的抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力，使企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)者能盡早得知企業(yè)潛在的危險(xiǎn)而采取相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施就顯得十分必要。
本文首先介紹了財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的研究背景及意義，并對(duì)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警研究的理論及現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行概述；然后對(duì)我國(guó)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)失敗及財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的現(xiàn)狀及問題進(jìn)行分析，通過以上分析可知國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者曾建立了多個(gè)預(yù)警模型，但國(guó)內(nèi)關(guān)于上市公司財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警方法的研究主要是借鑒國(guó)外的模型，存在著方法單一、理論框架不完善、模型適用條件不準(zhǔn)確三個(gè)方面的主要缺陷，亟待建立基于現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警體系，分行業(yè)研究和企業(yè)自身預(yù)警兩個(gè)方面取得突破。因此本文認(rèn)為應(yīng)基于現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)體系，分行業(yè)建立財(cái)務(wù)失敗預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)我國(guó)的上市公司進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，從而探索出一套適合我國(guó)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警管理系統(tǒng)。
關(guān)鍵詞：預(yù)警系統(tǒng) Z模型 現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)

Abstract
In a word, financial risk prediction is to use financial indexes to forecast corporate risk. The research of financial risk prediction is always main problem in business and academic circles. How to recognize, assess, forecast financial risk is always one of the world researchers’ focus. Along our country joining the WTO, our country businesses face the exterior environment to of competition is more and more vigorous. The quantity of the businesses sink into the financial distress and cause bankruptcy hoicked, the wide spread ability of resisting the risk is weaker. It is important for business to raise their anti-risk ability and can make business executive known the latent danger in business as early as possible and adopt to reply the measure.
This paper introduces the financial warning of background and the significance as well as its theory and actuality; and then the financial bankruptcy as well as the system of financial warning existing problems and actuality of China's the listed company for analysis. From the above case study, we could know as for financial affairs early warning research of the listed company, the domestic and international once established many financial warning models; but the most domestic’s research learned from the model of international and there are three aspects of shortcoming such as the simplex method, the non-perfectly framework theoretical and the non-accurate suitable condition of model. Therefore this paper should set up an integrated system of cash flow predicting indexes according to the character of industry the listed company being built their financial warning model to forecast. Thus, explore a special system of financial affairs early warning for China's the listed company.
Key words: the system of financial affairs early warning  Z-score model  Cash flow index